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Asymptotic tail probability of weighted infinite sum of conditionally dependent and consistently varying tailed random variables
Journal of Inequalities and Applications volume 2019, Article number: 120 (2019)
Abstract
This paper investigates the asymptotic behavior of the tail probability of a weighted infinite sum of random variables with consistently varying tails under two conditional dependence structures. The obtained results extend and improve the existing results of Bae and Ko (J. Korean Stat. Soc. 46:321–327, 2017).
1 Introduction
Assume that \(\{X_{i}, i\geq 1\}\) is a sequence of random variables (r.v.s) with their respective distributions \(F_{i}\), \(i\geq 1\), supported on \(D=[0,\infty )\) or \((-\infty , \infty )\), and that \(\{\psi _{i}, i\geq 1\}\) is a sequence of real numbers, which represent the weights of \(\{X_{i}, i\geq 1\}\). Denote the weighted infinite sum by \(\sum_{i=1}^{\infty }\psi _{i}X_{i}\), the asymptotic tail behavior of which is the main objective of our paper.
In this paper, we consider the heavy-tailed distribution classes. Firstly, we introduce some notions and notations. All limit relationships henceforth hold as \(x\rightarrow \infty \) unless stated otherwise. For two positive functions \(a(\cdot )\) and \(b(\cdot )\), we write \(a(x)\lesssim b(x)\) if \(\limsup a(x)/b(x)\leq 1\), \(a(x)\gtrsim b(x)\) if \(\liminf a(x)/b(x)\geq 1\), \(a(x)\sim b(x)\) if \(\lim a(x)/b(x)=1\). For a proper distribution V on \((-\infty ,\infty )\), we denote its tail by \(\overline{V}(x)=1-V(x)\), and its upper and lower Matuszewska indices, respectively, by
where \(\overline{V}_{*}(y) =\liminf \overline{V}(xy)/\overline{V}(x)\) and \(\overline{V}^{*}(y)=\limsup \overline{V}(xy)/\overline{V}(x)\) for \(y>0\).
An important class of heavy-tailed distributions is the subexponential class. Say that a distribution V on \([0,\infty )\) belongs to the subexponential class, denoted by \(V\in \mathscr{S}\), if
where \({V}^{*2}\) is the 2-fold convolution of V. Note that if \(V\in \mathscr{S}\) then V is long-tailed, denoted by \(V\in \mathscr{L}\), in the sense that
Besides, if \(V\in \mathscr{L}\) then
Moreover, the class \(\mathscr{S}\) covers the class \(\mathscr{C}\) of distributions with consistently varying tails, characterized by
and also the class \({\mathscr{C}}\) covers the class \(\mathscr{R}_{- \alpha }\), \(0<\alpha <\infty \), of distributions with regularly varying tails, characterized by
Another important class of heavy-tailed distributions is the dominant variation class, denoted by \({\mathscr{D}}\). Say that a distribution V belongs to the class \({\mathscr{D}}\), if
More generally, when V is supported on \((-\infty ,\infty )\), we say that V belongs to a distribution class if \(V (x)1_{\{x\geq 0\}}\) belongs to the class. In conclusion,
For more details of heavy-tailed distributions and their applications, the reader is referred to Bingham et al. [2] and Embrechts et al. [5].
By inequality (2.1.9) in Theorem 2.18 and Proposition 2.2.1 of Bingham et al. [2], we know that \(V\in \mathscr{D}\) if and only if \(J_{V}^{+}<\infty \); and if \(V\in \mathscr{D}\), then, for all \(0< p_{1}< J_{V}^{-}\) and \(p_{2}>J_{V}^{+}\), there exist \(C_{i}>0\) and \(D_{i}>0\), \(i=1,2\) such that
and
We now give a proposition, which will play a key role in the proofs of the main results.
Proposition 1.1
If \(V\in \mathscr{C}\), then \(J_{V}^{-}>0\).
Proof
For any fixed \(x>0\), \(\overline{V}(xy)/\overline{V}(x)\) is a monotonically decreasing function of y, which leads to \(\overline{V}^{*}(y)\leq \overline{V}^{*}(z)\) for \(y>z>0\), and then by \(V\in \mathscr{C}\), \(\overline{V}^{*}(y)\leq \lim_{z\uparrow 1}\overline{V}^{*}(z)=1\). Since \(\limsup_{x\rightarrow \infty } \lim_{y\rightarrow \infty }\overline{V}(xy)/\overline{V}(x)=0\), there exists a sufficiently large number \(y_{0}>1\) such that \(\overline{V}^{*}(y)<1\) for all \(y>y_{0}\), and further \(\log \overline{V}^{*}(y)/\log y<0\), \(y>y_{0}>1\). Hence by the definition of \(J_{V}^{-}\), it follows that \(J_{V}^{-}\geq \sup \{-\log \overline{V}^{*}(y)/\log y: y>y_{0}\}>0\). □
It is well known that an increasing number of researchers introduce many dependence structures to extensively study the asymptotic tail behaviors of sums of r.v.s in the literature of applied probability. See, for example, Ko and Tang [14], Geluk and Tang [12], Chen and Yuan [4], Foss and Richards [6], Gao and Wang [10], Yi et al. [21], Liu et al. [17], Gao and Liu [9], Chen et al. [3], Li [15], Wang et al. [20], Jiang et al. [13], Gao and Yang [11], Gao and Jin [8], Liu et al. [16, 18], Bae and Ko [1], Gao et al. [7], among which Ko and Tang [14] proposed a conditional dependence structure as follows.
Assumption A
For \(n\geq 2\) and \(D=[0,\infty )\), there exist some large constants \(x_{0}=x_{0}(n)>0\) and \(C=C(n)>0\) such that, for every \(2\leq j\leq n\),
In this paper, we extend the support of corresponding distribution in Assumption A from \([0,\infty )\) to \((-\infty ,\infty )\), and we denote by Assumption A∗ the modified dependence structure.
Besides, Geluk and Tang [12] introduced another conditional dependence structure.
Assumption B
For \(n\geq 2\) and \(D=(-\infty ,\infty )\), there exist some large constants \(x_{0}=x_{0}(n)>0\) and \(C=C(n)>0\) such that the inequality
holds for all \(1\leq i\leq n\), \(J:=\{j:1\leq j\leq n\}\setminus \{i \}\), \(x_{i}>x_{0}\), and \(x_{j}>x_{0}\), \(j\in J\).
Obviously, the relation in Assumption B is equivalent to the conjunction of the relations
and
In this paper, for Assumption B, relation (1.3) is replaced by the following relation:
to cover all independent r.v.s In fact, when \(\{X_{i}, 1\leq i\leq n \}\) is a sequence of mutually independent r.v.s such that \(\lim_{x_{i}\to \infty }\overline{F_{i}}(x _{i})/F_{i}(-x_{i})=0\) for some \(1\leq i\leq n\), relation (1.3) is not satisfied, and then neither is Assumption B. Hence, the extended conditional dependence structure from Assumption B is labeled as Assumption B∗. Note that these extended conditional dependence structures denoted by Assumptions A∗ and B∗ were firstly considered by Jiang et al. [13].
This paper will mainly focus on the asymptotic behavior of the tail probability of a weighted infinite sum of heavy-tailed r.v.s under the above two extended conditional dependence structures. In the rest of this paper, we will state our main results in Sect. 2, and prove them in Sect. 3.
2 Main results
In this section we firstly review the related results, and then present the main result of this paper. For the case when r.v.s \(X_{i}\), \(1\leq i\leq n\), satisfy Assumption A, Bae and Ko [1] obtained the following theorem on a weighted infinite sum.
Theorem 1.A
Let \(\{X_{i}, i\geq 1\}\) be a sequence of nonnegative r.v.s with common distribution \(F\in \mathscr{R}_{- \alpha }\), and for each n, \(X_{i}\), \(1\leq i\leq n\), satisfy Assumption A. If \(\sum_{i=1}^{\infty }|\psi _{i}|^{p}<\infty \) for some \(0< p<\min \{\alpha ,1\}\), then
where \(\mathbb{I}_{+}\) denotes the set \(\{i\mid \psi _{i}>0\}\).
For the case when r.v.s \(X_{i}\), \(1\leq i\leq n\), satisfy Assumption B, Geluk and Tang [12] presented a theorem as below.
Theorem 1.B
Assume that \(X_{i}\), \(1\leq i\leq n\), are real-valued r.v.s with distributions \(F_{i}\), \(1\leq i\leq n\). If \(F_{i}\in \mathscr{S}\) for all \(1\leq i\leq n\) and \(F_{i}*F_{j}\in \mathscr{S}\) for all \(1\leq i< j\leq n\), and Assumption B holds. Then, for all \(n\geq 1\),
For the case when r.v.s \(X_{i}\), \(1\leq i\leq n\), satisfy Assumption A∗ or B∗, Jiang et al. [13] gave the following two results on sums of these r.v.s.
Theorem 1.C
Assume that \(X_{i}\), \(1\leq i\leq n\), satisfy Assumption A∗, and \(F_{i}\in \mathscr{L}\) for all \(1\leq i\leq n\) and \(F_{i}*F_{j}\in \mathscr{S}\) for all \(1\leq i< j\leq n\). Furthermore, when these r.v.s do not satisfy Assumption B or B∗, there exists a function \(h\in \bigcap_{i=1}^{n}\mathscr{H}(F_{i})\) such that, for all \(1\leq i\leq n\),
Then, for all \(n\geq 1\), Eq. (2.1) holds.
Theorem 1.D
Assume that \(X_{i}\), \(1\leq i\leq n\), satisfy Assumption B∗, and \(F_{i}\in \mathscr{L}\) for all \(1\leq i\leq n\) and \(F_{i}*F_{j}\in \mathscr{S}\) for all \(1\leq i< j\leq n\). Then, for all \(n\geq 1\), Eq. (2.1) holds.
Inspired by the above results, in this paper we further consider the asymptotic tail behavior of weighted infinite sum of consistently varying tailed r.v.s under conditional dependence structure satisfying Assumption A∗ or B∗. The main results of this paper are given below.
Theorem 2.1
Let \(\{X_{i}, i\geq 1\}\) be a sequence of real-valued r.v.s. with distributions \(F_{i}\in \mathscr{L}\), \(i\geq 1\), and all weights \(\{\psi _{i}, i\geq 1\}\) be real numbers. Assume that there exists a distribution \(F\in \mathscr{C}\) such that
and
and that \(\sum_{i=1}^{\infty }|\psi _{i}|^{p}<\infty \) for some \(0< p<\min \{J_{F}^{-}, J_{F}^{-}/J_{F}^{+}\}\), then the relation
holds, if \(\{X_{i}, i\geq 1\}\) is a sequence of r.v.s satisfy Assumption A∗ or B∗, where \(\mathbb{I}_{+}\) is the set given in Theorem 1.A.
Corollary 2.1
Under the conditions of Theorem 2.1, if \(F_{i}\in \mathscr{C}\), \(i\geq 1\), then
and furthermore if \(F_{i}\sim F\), \(i\geq 1\), then
If \(F_{i}\sim F\in \mathscr{R_{-\alpha }}\), \(i\geq 1\), then
3 Lemmas
In order to prove Theorem 2.1 and Corollary 2.1, we now give two lemmas which are concerned with the case that weights \(\{\psi _{i}, i\geq 1\}\) be positive.
Lemma 3.1
Let \(\{X_{i}, i\geq 1\}\) be a sequence of real-valued r.v.s with their respective distributions \(F_{i}\in \mathscr{L}\), \(i\geq 1\), and their weights \(\{\psi _{i}, i\geq 1\}\) be positive. Assume that there exists a distribution \(F\in \mathscr{C}\) such that (2.2) and (2.3) hold, and that \(\sum_{i=1}^{\infty }\psi _{i}^{p}<\infty \) for some \(0< p<\min \{J_{F} ^{-},J_{F}^{-}/J_{F}^{+}\}\), then the relation
holds, if \(\{X_{i}, i\geq 1\}\) is a sequence of r.v.s satisfy Assumption A∗ or B∗.
Proof
Without loss of generality, we assume that \(0<\psi _{i}\leq 1\), \(i\geq 1\). It is because there can be only a finite number of terms with \(\psi _{i}>1\) by the assumption and, if that is the case, we can divide each weight with the maximum of such \(\psi _{i}\)s.
Take \(0< p<\min \{J^{-}_{F}, J^{-}_{F}/J_{F}^{+}\}\) such that \(\sum_{i=1}^{\infty }\psi _{i}^{p}<\infty \). Then, for any \(0<\varepsilon <1\), there exists a large positive integer \(n_{0}\) such that
For the above integer \(n_{0}\), by \(F\in \mathscr{C}\subset \mathscr{D}\), (1.1) and (3.2), there exist positive constants \(C_{3}\) and \(D_{3}\) such that, for all large \(x\geq D_{3}\) and the above p,
Firstly, to prove the upper bound of Eq. (3.1), we follow the approach used in the proof of Lemma 4.24 in Resnick [19] or Theorem 2 in Bae and Ko [1]. For any \(0<\delta <1\) and integer \(n_{0}\) in (3.2), we have
where \(X_{i}^{+}=\max \{X_{i},0\}\), \(i\geq 1\). For convenience’s sake, we remark that \(F_{i}\in \mathscr{L}\cap \mathscr{D}\), \(i\geq 1\), can imply \(F_{i}\in \mathscr{S}\), \(1\leq i\leq n\), and \(F_{i}*F_{j}\in \mathscr{S}\) for all \(1\leq i< j\leq n\); see Jiang et al. [13]. Therefore, the distributions \(F_{i}\), \(i\geq 1\), in Theorem 2.1 and Lemma 3.1, can also satisfy the conditions in Theorem 1.C. For \(I_{1}(x)\), by Theorem 1.C or 1.D, and (2.3), it follows that
By \(F\in \mathscr{C}\), we get
Hence, we substitute (3.6) into (3.5) to obtain
For \(I_{2}(x)\), when \(0< J_{F}^{+}<1\), we have
By (1.2), (2.3), (3.3) and \(F\in \mathscr{C} \subset \mathscr{D}\), for any \(p_{2}>J_{F}^{+}\), there exist some large positive constants \(C_{4}\) and \(D_{4}\) such that, for all \(x\geq \max \{D_{3}, D_{4}\}\),
By Markov’s inequality and the monotone convergence theorem, we see that
By \(F\in \mathscr{C}\subset \mathscr{D}\), (1.2) and (2.3), for any \(J_{F}^{+}< p_{2}<1\), there exist some large positive constants \(C_{5}\) and \(D_{5}\) such that, for all \(x\geq D_{5}\),
Substituting (3.11) into (3.10) and using the last step of (3.9) can lead to
Therefore by (3.4), (3.7)–(3.9), (3.12) and the arbitrariness of ε, we derive that
For the case when \(J_{F}^{+}\geq 1\), we choose some constant \(\beta \in (J_{F}^{+},J_{F}^{-}p^{-1})\) such that \(p<\beta ^{-1}J_{F} ^{-}\leq \beta ^{-1}J_{F}^{+}<1\). Set \(\psi =\sum_{i=n_{0}+1}^{\infty }\psi _{i}\), which is assumed to be less than 1 without loss of generality. Then by Jensen’s inequality, it follows that
For \(I'_{21}(x)\), by using \(F\in \mathscr{C}\subset \mathscr{D}\) and (1.1), and arguing as (3.9), for any \(p_{1}\in (\beta p,J _{F}^{-})\) and \(p_{2}>J_{F}^{+}\), there exist some large positive constants \(C_{6}\) and \(D_{6}\) such that, for all \(x\geq \max \{D_{3}, D_{4}, D_{6}\}\),
For \(I'_{22}(x)\), by going along the same lines of the derivation of \(I_{22}(x)\), we conclude that, for any \(J_{F}^{+}< p_{2}<\beta \), there exist some large positive constants \(C_{7}\) and \(D_{7}\) such that, for all \(x\geq \max \{D_{3}, D_{4}, D_{6}, D_{7}\}\),
where the last step is obtained similarly to (3.15). Then by (3.4), (3.7), (3.14)–(3.16) and the arbitrariness of ε, we prove that Eq. (3.13) holds.
Secondly, we deal with the lower bound of Eq. (3.1). Let \(n_{0}\) and p be fixed as those in (3.2). For any \(0<\delta <1\), we have
where \(X_{i}^{-}=-\min \{X_{i}, 0\}\), \(i\geq 1\). For \(I_{3}(x)\), by (2.3), Theorem 1.C or 1.D, we have
By \(F\in \mathscr{C}\), it follows that
By (3.3), (3.18) and (3.19), we obtain
which, along with the arbitrariness of \(0<\varepsilon <1\), implies that
By (2.2), for any \(0<\varepsilon <1\), there exists a large positive constant \(D'\) such that, for all \(x\geq D'\),
For \(I_{4}(x)\), we only consider the case \(0< J_{F}^{+}<1\). In fact, the case of \(J_{F}^{+}\geq 1\) follows from similar derivations to (3.14)–(3.16) with slight modifications. Clearly,
For \(I_{41}(x)\), by (3.21) and the last step of (3.9), for all \(x\geq \max \{D', D_{4}\}\),
For \(I_{42}(x)\), similarly to (3.10), we have
Similarly to (3.11), by \(F\in \mathscr{C}\subset \mathscr{D}\), (1.2), (2.2) and (2.3), for any \(J_{F}^{+}< p _{2}<1\), there exist some large positive constants \(C_{8}\) and \(D_{8} \) such that, for all \(x\geq \max \{ D', D_{8}\}\),
Then, by substituting (3.25) into (3.24) and arguing similarly to (3.9), we prove that, for all \(x\geq \max \{ D', D_{4}, D_{8}\}\),
and further we substitute (3.23) and (3.26) into (3.22) to obtain, for all \(x\geq \max \{D', D_{4}, D_{8}\}\),
which, along with (3.17), (3.20) and the arbitrariness of \(0<\varepsilon <1\), can show the lower bound of Eq. (3.1). □
Lemma 3.2
Under the conditions of Lemma 3.1, if \(F_{i}\in \mathscr{C}\), \(i\geq 1\), then
and further if \(F_{i}\sim F\), \(i\geq 1\), then
If \(F_{i}\sim F\in \mathscr{R_{-\alpha }}\), \(i\geq 1\), then
Proof
By Lemma 3.1, it suffices to prove that
and, when \(F\in \mathscr{R_{-\alpha }}\),
Firstly, we prove (3.28). By the proof of Lemma 3.1, we only need to prove
and
Since \(F_{i}\in \mathscr{C}\), \(i\geq 1\), we know that
and
By (3.32) and Theorem 1.C or 1.D, it follows that
which leads to (3.30). By Theorem 1.C or 1.D, (2.3), (3.3) and (3.33), we have
which, along with the arbitrariness of \(0<\varepsilon <1\), implies that Eq. (3.31) holds.
Secondly, we prove (3.29). By \(F\in \mathscr{R_{-\alpha }}\) and the control convergence theorem, we have
□
4 Proof of main result
In this section, we will prove the main result of this paper.
Proof of Theorem 2.1
Without loss of generality, we may assume that \(-1\leq \psi _{i}\leq 1\). Firstly, we consider the upper bound of E (2.4). For any \(0<\delta <1\), we have
where \(\mathbb{I}_{-}\) denotes the set \(\{i\mid \psi _{i}<0\}\). For \(I_{5}(x)\), by Lemma 3.1 and (3.6), we have
For \(I_{6}(x)\), it follows from (3.27) that, for all \(x\geq \max \{D', D_{4}, D_{8}\}\),
Thus, substituting (4.2) and (4.3) into (4.1) and considering the arbitrariness of \(0<\varepsilon <1\), we show that
Secondly, we consider the lower bound of Eq. (2.4). By Lemma 3.1 and (3.19), we derive that
where in the third step we used the fact that the event \(\{\omega : \sum_{i\in \mathbb{I}_{-}}\psi _{i}X_{i}\geq -\delta x\}\) increases to a certain event as x tends to infinity. Therefore, we combine (4.4) and (4.5) to conclude that Eq. (2.4) holds. □
Proof of Corollary 2.1
By (3.29) and the proof of Theorem 2.1, we only need to prove
and
Firstly, we consider (4.6). By Lemma 3.2, (3.3) and (3.32), we conclude that, for any \(p_{2}>J_{F}^{+}\), there exist some large positive constants \(C_{9}\) and \(D_{9}\) such that, for all \(x\geq \max \{D_{3}, D_{9}\}\),
which, along with the arbitrariness of \(0<\varepsilon <1\), proves (4.6).
Secondly, we consider (4.7). Similarly to (4.5), by Theorem 3.1, (3.3) and (3.33), we conclude that
which, along with the arbitrariness of \(0<\varepsilon <1\), proves (4.7). □
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Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank the two referees and the editors for their very valuable comments on an earlier version of the paper.
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This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 11501295 and 11871289), the Postdoctoral Science Foundation of China (No. 2015M580415), the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province of China (No. BK20151459), the Social Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province of China (No. 16GLC006), the Postdoctoral Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province of China (No. 1501004B) and Qing-Lan Project of Jiangsu Province.
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The author QG found the main reference Bae and Ko [1] in the literature study, and proposed the ideas and methods of the main results in our paper. All authors implemented concretely the above ideas and methods, and accomplished this paper. All the authors read and approved the final manuscript.
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Gao, Q., Liu, X. & Chai, C. Asymptotic tail probability of weighted infinite sum of conditionally dependent and consistently varying tailed random variables. J Inequal Appl 2019, 120 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1186/s13660-019-2067-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s13660-019-2067-x
MSC
- 62E20
- 60G70
- 62H20
Keywords
- Asymptotic tail probability
- Weighted infinite sum
- Conditional dependence
- Consistent variation